Tuberculosis in Poland in 2020.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate the main features of epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in 2020 in Poland and to compare with the situation in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Analysis of case-based data on TB patients from National TB Register, data on anti-TB drug susceptibility in cases notified in 2020, data from Statistics Poland on deaths from tuberculosis in 2019, data from National Institute of Public Health NIH - National Research Institute (NIPH NIH - NRI) on HIV-positive subjects for whom TB was an AIDS-defining disease, data from the report "European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, WHO Regional Office for Europe. Tuberculosis surveillance and monitoring in Europe 2022 - 2020 data. Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe and Stockholm: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2022." RESULTS: In 2020, 3,388 TB cases were reported in Poland. The incidence rate was 8.8 cases per 100,000 with large variability between voivodeships from 5.5 to 13.3 per 100,000. A decrease in the incidence was found in 15 voivodeships, the most significant in Slaskie voivodship (63.9%). The number of all pulmonary tuberculosis cases was 3,237 i.e. 8.4 per 100,000. Pulmonary cases represented 95.5% of all TB cases. In 2020, 151 extrapulmonary TB cases were notified (4.5% of all TB cases). Pulmonary tuberculosis was bacteriologically confirmed in 2,573 cases (79.5% of all pulmonary TB cases, the incidence rate 6.7 per 100,000). The number of smear-positive pulmonary TB cases was 1,771 i.e. 4.6 per 100,000 (54.7% of all pulmonary TB cases). In 2020, there were 38 cases (15 of foreign origin) with multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) representing 1.6% of cases with known drug sensitivity. The incidence rates of tuberculosis were growing along with increasing age from 0.7 per 100,000 among children (0-14 years) to 15.0 per 100,000 among subjects in the age group 45-64 years, the incidence rate in the age group ≥65 years was 12.1 per 100,000. There were 39 cases in children up to 14 years of age (1.2% of the total) and 49 cases in adolescents between 15 and 19 years of age - rates 0.7 and 2.7 per 100,000 respectively. In 2020, there were 2,506 cases of tuberculosis in men and 882 in women. The TB incidence in men - 13.5 per 100,000 was 3.0 times higher than among women - 4.5. The biggest difference in the TB incidence between the two sex groups occurred in persons aged 50-54 years - 26.8 vs. 4.1 and in age group 55 to 59 years - 28.7 vs. 4.8. In 2020, there were 116 patients of foreign origin among all cases of tuberculosis in Poland (3.4%). In 2019, TB was the cause of death for 456 people (mortality rate - 1.2 per 100,000). CONCLUSIONS: TB incidence in Poland in 2020 was 36.7% lower than in 2019. Such significant declines in the incidence have not been observed in the last two decades. As in previous years, there were differences in incidence rates between voivodeships with an unexpectedly sharp decrease in incidence in Silesia (Slaskie voivodeship). The percentage of tuberculosis cases with bacteriological confirmation exceeded 78%, more than in EU/EEA countries (67.3%). The percentage of MDR-TB cases was still lower than the average in EU/EEA countries (1.6% vs. 3.8%). The highest incidence rates were found in Poland in the older age groups (EU/EEAaged 25 to 44). The percentage of children up to 14 years of age among the total number of TB patients was 1.2%, less than the average in EU/EEA countries (3.8%). The incidence of tuberculosis in men was three times higher than in women in Poland, and six times higher in patients aged 50 to 59. The impact of migration on the TB pattern in Poland has not yet become significant in 2020. The percentage of foreigners among TB patients was 3.4% (33% in EU/EEA countries).

Integrating tuberculosis and COVID-19 molecular testing in Lima, Peru: a cross-sectional, diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Integrated molecular testing could be an opportunity to detect and provide care for both tuberculosis and COVID-19. Many high tuberculosis burden countries, such as Peru, have existing GeneXpert systems for tuberculosis testing with GeneXpert Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra), and a GeneXpert SARS-CoV-2 assay, GeneXpert Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 (Xpert Xpress), is also available. We aimed to assess the feasibility of integrating tuberculosis and COVID-19 testing using one sputum specimen with Xpert Ultra and Xpert Xpress in Lima, Peru. METHODS: In this cross-sectional, diagnostic accuracy study, we recruited adults presenting with clinical symptoms or suggestive history of tuberculosis or COVID-19, or both. Participants were recruited from a total of 35 primary health facilities in Lima, Peru. Participants provided one nasopharyngeal swab and one sputum sample. For COVID-19, we tested nasopharyngeal swabs and sputum using Xpert Xpress; for tuberculosis, we tested sputum using culture and Xpert Ultra. We compared diagnostic accuracy of sputum testing using Xpert Xpress with nasopharyngeal swab testing using Xpert Xpress. Individuals with positive Xpert Xpress nasopharyngeal swab results were considered COVID-19 positive, and a positive culture indicated tuberculosis. To assess testing integration, the proportion of cases identified in sputum by Xpert Xpress was compared with Xpert Xpress on nasopharyngeal swabs, and sputum by Xpert Ultra was compared with culture. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2021, and April 26, 2022, we recruited 600 participants (312 [52%] women and 288 [48%] men). In-study prevalence of tuberculosis was 13% (80 participants, 95% CI 11-16) and of SARS-CoV-2 was 35% (212 participants, 32-39). Among tuberculosis cases, 13 (2·2%, 1·2-3·7) participants were concurrently positive for SARS-CoV-2. Regarding the diagnostic yield of integrated testing, Xpert Ultra detected 96% (89-99) of culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases (n=77), and Xpert Xpress-sputum detected 67% (60-73) of COVID-19 cases (n=134). All five study staff reported that integrated molecular testing was easy and acceptable. INTERPRETATION: The diagnostic yield of Xpert Xpress on sputum was moderate, but integrated testing for tuberculosis and COVID-19 with GeneXpert was feasible. However, systematic testing for both diseases might not be the ideal approach for everyone presenting with presumptive tuberculosis or COVID-19, as concurrent positive cases were rare during the study period. Further research might help to identify when integrated testing is most worthwhile and its optimal implementation. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and International Development Research Centre. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Limited effect of reducing pulmonary tuberculosis incidence amid mandatory facial masking for COVID-19.

Although the incidence and mortality rates associated with tuberculosis (TB) have been decreasing in many countries, TB remains a major public health concern. Obligatory facial masking and reduced health-care capacity because of COVID-19 may substantially influence TB transmission and care. The Global Tuberculosis Report 2021 published by the World Health Organization indicated a TB rebound at the end of 2020, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic. We explored this rebound phenomenon in Taiwan by investigating whether TB incidence and mortality are affected by COVID-19 because of their common route of transmission. In addition, we investigated whether the incidence of TB varies across regions with different incidences of COVID-19. Data (2010-2021) regarding annual new cases of TB and multidrug-resistant TB were collected from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. TB incidence and mortality were assessed in Taiwan's seven administrative regions. Over the last decade, TB incidence decreased continually, even during 2020 and 2021, the years coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, TB incidence remained high in regions with low COVID-19 incidence. However, the overall decreasing trends of TB incidence and mortality remained unchanged during the pandemic. Facial masking and social distancing may prevent COVID-19 transmission but exhibit limited efficacy in reducing TB transmission. Thus, during health-related policymaking, policymakers must consider TB rebound, even in the post-COVID-19 era.

Risk of Herpes Zoster in Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis-A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), a global health problem, is typically caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by the reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). The reactivation of VZV can be caused by stress. We investigated whether pulmonary TB increases the risk of HZ development. METHODS: This study used data that sampled a population of 2 million people in 2000 from the National Health Insurance Research Database. This cohort study observed Taiwanese patients aged 20-100 years with pulmonary TB from 2000 to 2017 (tracked to 2018). Pulmonary TB was defined as having two or more outpatient diagnoses or at least one admission record. To address potential bias caused by confounding factors, the control cohort and pulmonary TB cohort were matched 1:1 by age, gender, index year, and comorbidities. Patients with HZ before the index date were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 30,805 patients were in the pulmonary TB and control cohorts. The incidence rate of HZ in pulmonary TB and control cohorts were 12.00 and 9.66 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The risk of HZ in the pulmonary TB cohort (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.16-1.30) was significantly higher than that of in control cohort. Among patients without comorbidities, the patients with TB were 1.28-fold more likely to have HZ than those without TB. CONCLUSION: Patients with TB should be well treated to avoid the potential risk of HZ occurrence. Although we identified the association between pulmonary TB and HZ, further studies are needed to confirm the result.

Time to diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis in indigenous peoples: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Time to diagnosis and treatment is a major factor in determining the likelihood of tuberculosis (TB) transmission and is an important area of intervention to reduce the reservoir of TB infection and prevent disease and mortality. Although Indigenous peoples experience an elevated incidence of TB, prior systematic reviews have not focused on this group. We summarize and report findings related to time to diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary TB (PTB) among Indigenous peoples, globally. METHODS: A Systematic review was performed using Ovid and PubMed databases. Articles or abstracts estimating time to diagnosis, or treatment of PTB among Indigenous peoples were included with no restriction on sample size with publication dates restricted up to 2019. Studies that focused on outbreaks, solely extrapulmonary TB alone in non-Indigenous populations were excluded. Literature was assessed using the Hawker checklist. Registration Protocol (PROSPERO): CRD42018102463. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were selected after initial assessment of 2021 records. These included Indigenous groups from five of six geographical regions outlined by the World Health Organization (all except the European Region). The range of time to treatment (24-240 days), and patient delay (20 days-2.5 years) were highly variable across studies and, in at least 60% of the studies, longer in Indigenous compared to non-Indigenous peoples. Risk factors associated with longer patient delays included poor awareness of TB, type of health provider first seen, and self-treatment. CONCLUSION: Time to diagnosis and treatment estimates for Indigenous peoples are generally within previously reported ranges from other systematic reviews focusing on the general population. However among literature examined in this systematic review that stratified by Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples, patient delay and time to treatment were longer compared to non-Indigenous populations in over half of the studies. Studies included were sparse and highlight an overall gap in literature important to interrupting transmission and preventing new TB cases among Indigenous peoples. Although, risk factors unique to Indigenous populations were not identified, further investigation is needed as social determinants of health among studies conducted in medium and high incidence countries may be shared across both population groups. Trial registration N/a.

Pooling of sputum samples to increase tuberculosis diagnostic capacity in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed whether combining (pooling) four individual's samples and testing with Xpert Ultra has the same accuracy as testing samples individually as a more efficient testing method. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of individuals with presumptive tuberculosis attending primary health care or general hospital facilities in Alagoas, Brazil. The sputum samples of four consecutive individuals were pooled and the pool and individual samples were tested with Xpert Ultra. The agreement of the tests was compared using kappa statistics. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of pooling using the individual test as the reference standard and potential cartridge savings. RESULTS: A total of 396 participants were tested. A total of 95 (24.0%) individual samples were Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)-positive, 300 (75.8%) "MTB not detected", including 20 "MTB trace", and one reported an error. A total of 99 pools of four samples were tested, of which 62 (62.6%) had MTB detected and 37 (37.4%) MTB not detected, including six (6.1%) with MTB trace. The agreement between individual and pooled testing was 96.0%. Pooling had a sensitivity of 95.0% (95% confidence interval 86.9-99%), specificity of 97.1% (95% confidence interval 85.1-99.9%), and kappa of 0.913. The method saved 12.4% of cartridge costs. CONCLUSION: The pooled testing of specimens had a high level of agreement with individual testing. The pooling of samples for testing improves the efficiency of testing, potentially enabling the screening and testing of larger numbers of individuals more cost-effectively.

3- to 24-month Follow-up on COVID-19 with Pulmonary Tuberculosis Survivors after Discharge: Results from a Prospective, Multicenter Study.

Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and tuberculosis (TB) are major public health and social issues worldwide. The long-term follow-up of COVID-19 with pulmonary TB (PTB) survivors after discharge is unclear. This study aimed to comprehensively describe clinical outcomes, including sequela and recurrence at 3, 12, and 24 months after discharge, among COVID-19 with PTB survivors. Methods: From January 22, 2020 to May 6, 2022, with a follow-up by August 26, 2022, a prospective, multicenter follow-up study was conducted on COVID-19 with PTB survivors after discharge in 13 hospitals from four provinces in China. Clinical outcomes, including sequela, recurrence of COVID-19, and PTB survivors, were collected via telephone and face-to-face interviews at 3, 12, and 24 months after discharge. Results: Thirty-two COVID-19 with PTB survivors were included. The median age was 52 (45, 59) years, and 23 (71.9%) were men. Among them, nearly two-thirds (62.5%) of the survivors were moderate, three (9.4%) were severe, and more than half (59.4%) had at least one comorbidity (PTB excluded). The proportion of COVID-19 survivors with at least one sequela symptom decreased from 40.6% at 3 months to 15.8% at 24 months, with anxiety having a higher proportion over a follow-up. Cough and amnesia recovered at the 12-month follow-up, while anxiety, fatigue, and trouble sleeping remained after 24 months. Additionally, one (3.1%) case presented two recurrences of PTB and no re-positive COVID-19 during the follow-up period. Conclusion: The proportion of long symptoms in COVID-19 with PTB survivors decreased over time, while nearly one in six still experience persistent symptoms with a higher proportion of anxiety. The recurrence of PTB and the psychological support of COVID-19 with PTB after discharge require more attention.

Influence of COVID-19 for delaying the diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis-Tianjin, China.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the diagnosis, treatment, and care for tuberculosis (TB). Delays in seeking TB care may result in increased community transmission and unfavorable treatment outcomes. We sought to understand the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proportion of patients with TB who delayed seeking the diagnosis and care for TB and explore the reasons for their postponement. Methods: We surveyed a representative sample of outpatients treated for pulmonary TB from June to November 2020 using an anonymous standardized questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of factors associated with the postponement of TB care. We used routinely collected surveillance data to assess trends of TB reports before and after the emergence of COVID-19 (2017-2019 vs. 2020-2022) in Tianjin, China. Results: Among 358 participants who were diagnosed with pulmonary TB during the COVID-19 response, 61 (17%) postponed seeking TB diagnosis due to COVID-19, with 39 (64%) citing fear as the primary reason. Female sex (aOR:2.0; 95% CI: 1.1-3.7), previous antituberculosis treatment (aOR:3.2; 95%CI: 1.4-7.6), and TB diagnosis during the first-level response (aOR = 3.2, 1.7-6.2) were associated with the postponement. Among all 518 participants receiving antituberculosis treatment, 57 (11%) had postponed their regular healthcare visits due to COVID-19, 175 (34%) received no treatment supervision, and 32 (6%) experienced treatment interruption. Compared to 2017-2019, reported pulmonary TB declined by 36.8% during the first-level response to COVID-19, 23.5% during the second-level response, 14% during the third-level response in 2020, and 4.3% in 2021. Conclusion: The COVID-19 response reduced the number of people who sought and received diagnosis, treatment, and care for TB in Tianjin, China. Integrative programs to ensure access and continuity of TB services should be considered and dual testing for SARS-CoV-2 and M. tuberculosis may facilitate finding cases.

First case series and literature review of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) associated pulmonary tuberculosis in Southeast Asia: Challenges and opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical tuberculosis (TB) is accidentally detected by radiologic and microbiologic findings. Transmission by those with subclinical TB could delay prevention effort. However, our study demonstrated positive aspect of COVID-19 outbreak as it could allow subclinical TB to be detected faster through a chest X-Ray (CXR). METHODS: This cross-sectional cohort study aimed to report demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes related to early detection of TB among COVID-19 patients, and to elaborate the association between SARS-CoV-2 and pulmonary TB. Data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 co-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) diagnosed between March 2020 - March 2022 was collected. RESULTS: Out of 12,275 COVID-19 patients, 26 were definitively diagnosed with MTB infection (mean age 48.16 ± 20.17 years). All cases that had suspicious CXR that were not typical for COVID-19, were tested for MTB. On average, pulmonary TB was diagnosed after admission 5(3-10) days, the treatment initiation period was 3(1-5) days from the TB diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests an early detection of tuberculosis among COVID-19 patients by quicker screening CXR and sputum comparing to previous symptom guided screening. Thereby reducing the chance of TB transmission demonstrated during COVID-19 pandemic. So, clinicians should be aware of pulmonary tuberculosis in COVID-19 patients with atypical radiologic findings.

Predicting the Number of Reported Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Guiyang, China, Based on Time Series Analysis Techniques.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the world's deadliest infectious disease killers today, and despite China's increasing efforts to prevent and control TB, the TB epidemic is still very serious. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, if reliable forecasts of TB epidemic trends can be made, they can help policymakers with early warning and contribute to the prevention and control of TB. In this study, we collected monthly reports of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Guiyang, China, from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020, and monthly meteorological data for the same period, and used LASSO regression to screen four meteorological factors that had an influence on the monthly reports of PTB in Guiyang, including sunshine hours, relative humidity, average atmospheric pressure, and annual highest temperature, of which relative humidity (6-month lag) and average atmospheric pressure (7-month lag) have a lagging effect with the number of TB reports in Guiyang. Based on these data, we constructed ARIMA, Holt-Winters (additive and multiplicative), ARIMAX (with meteorological factors), LSTM, and multivariable LSTM (with meteorological factors). We found that the addition of meteorological factors significantly improved the performance of the time series prediction model, which, after comprehensive consideration, included the ARIMAX (1,1,1) (0,1,2)12 model with a lag of 7 months at the average atmospheric pressure, outperforms the other models in terms of both fit (RMSE = 37.570, MAPE = 10.164%, MAE = 28.511) and forecast sensitivity (RMSE = 20.724, MAPE = 6.901%, MAE = 17.306), so the ARIMAX (1,1,1) (0,1,2)12 model with a lag of 7 months can be used as a predictor tool for predicting the number of monthly reports of PTB in Guiyang, China.

Diagnostic and treatment outcomes of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in the first year of COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has put a significant strain on human life and health care systems, however, little is known about its impact on tuberculosis (TB) patients. Aims: To assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis, treatment and patient outcomes, using the WHO definitions. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Malatya region, Turkey (population 800 000). Data on regional PTB test numbers, case notification rates and PTB patients' clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes were collected. Data from the first pandemic year (2020) were compared to data from the previous 3 years (2017-2019). The attitudes and experiences of patients were analysed. Results: Despite a non-significant 22% decrease in annual PTB case notifications (P = 0.317), the number of TB tests performed (P = 0.001) and PTB patients evaluated (P = 0.001) decreased significantly during the pandemic year compared with the previous 3 years. The proportion of patients with high (3/4+) sputum acid-fast bacilli grades (P = 0.001), TB relapse (P = 0.022) and treatment failure (P = 0.018) increased significantly. The median 64.5-day treatment delay detected in 2017-2019 increased significantly to 113.5 days in 2020 (P = 0.001), due primarily to patients' reluctance to visit a health care facility. Conclusion: In addition to the problems with case detection, this study shows notable deterioration in several indicators related to the severity, contagiousness and poor outcomes of TB, which had already been suppressed for decades.

Pulmonary tuberculosis screening in emigrants and travellers: A retrospective analysis of Guangzhou Port in China.

BACKGROUND: China is beginning to transform from a migrant exporting country to a migrant importing country. Our study aimed to assess risks of imported tuberculosis among travellers and to determine risk factors, to tailor institutional guidelines. METHODS: We conducted an observational, retrospective, population-based cohort study. Molecular epidemiology surveillance methods were used to screen travellers for cases of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) at Guangzhou Port in China from January 2010 to December 2016. RESULTS: A total of 165,369 travellers from 190 countries and regions were screened for PTB. The rate of suspected PTB, laboratory confirmed rate, and the total detection rate in emigrants were significantly higher than those in travellers (p<0.01). There were four differences in the PTB screening process between emigrants and travellers. According to the transmission risk degree of the tuberculosis, forty high-risk PTB importing countries were divided into five levels. The travellers diagnosed with PTB were significantly younger than the emigrants (p<0.01). The distribution of genotypes differed significantly between the travellers and emigrants (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PTB screening process in travellers at ports should include a risk assessment of high-risk groups. It should reduce diagnosis time by rapid molecular detection methods and strengthen drug resistant (DR) transmission and monitoring of imported PTB strains through molecular genotyping at ports.

Association between diagnostic delay and prognosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the main infectious diseases that seriously threatens global health, while diagnostic delay (DD) and treatment dramatically threaten TB control. METHODS: Between 2005 and 2017 in Shandong, China, we enrolled pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients with DD. DD trends were evaluated by Joinpoint regression, and associations between PTB patient characteristics and DD were estimated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The influence of DD duration on prognosis and sputum smear results were assessed by Spearman correlation coefficients. RESULTS: We identified 208,822 PTB cases with a median DD of 33 days (interquartile range (IQR) 18-63). The trend of PTB with DD declined significantly between 2009 and 2017 (annual percent change (APC): - 4.0%, P = 0.047, 2009-2013; APC: - 6.6%, P = 0.001, 2013-2017). Patients aged > 45 years old (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.189-1.257, 46-65 years; aOR: 1.306, 95% CI 1.267-1.346, > 65 years), farmers (aOR: 1.520, 95% CI 1.447-1.596), and those with a previous treatment history (aOR: 1.759, 95% CI 1.699-1.821) were prone to developing long DD (> 30 days, P < 0.05). An unfavorable outcome was negatively associated with a short DD (OR: 0.876, 95% CI 0.843-0.910, P < 0.001). Sputum smear positive rate and unfavorable outcomes were positively correlated with DD duration (Spearman correlation coefficients (rs) = 1, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The DD situation remains serious; more efficient and comprehensive strategies are urgently required to minimize DD, especially for high-risk patients.

Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis under the regular COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has driven public health intervention strategies, including keeping social distance, wearing masks in crowded places, and having good health habits, to prevent the transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). However, it is unknown whether the use of these intervention strategies influences morbidity in other human infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis. METHODS: In this study, three prediction models were constructed to compare variations in PTB incidences after January 2020 without or with intervention includes strict and regular interventions, when the COVID-19 outbreak began in China. The non-interventional model was developed with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that was trained with the monthly incidence of PTB in China from January 2005 to December 2019. The interventional model was established using an ARIMA model with a continuing intervention function that was trained with the monthly PTB incidence in China from January 2020 to December 2020. RESULTS: Starting with the assumption that no COVID-19 outbreak had occurred in China, PTB incidence was predicted, and then the actual incidence was compared with the predicted incidence. A remarkable overall decline in PTB incidence from January 2020 to December 2020 was observed, which was likely due to the potential influence of intervention policies for COVID-19. If the same intervention strategy is applied for the next 2 years, the monthly PTB incidence would reduce on average by about 1.03 per 100,000 people each month compared with the incidence predicted by the non-interventional model. The annual incidence estimated 59.15 under regular intervention per 100,000 in 2021, and the value would decline to 50.65 with strict interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Our models quantified the potential knock-on effect on PTB incidence of the intervention strategy used to control the transmission of COVID-19 in China. Combined with the feasibility of the strategies, these results suggested that continuous regular interventions would play important roles in the future prevention and control of PTB.

Predictors for Pulmonary Tuberculosis Outcome and Adverse Events in an Italian Referral Hospital: A Nine-Year Retrospective Study (2013-2021).

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has undone years of progress in providing essential TB services and controlling the TB burden. Italy, a low TB burden country, has an incidence of 7.1 cases per 100,000 people. To control the TB spreading in Italy is critical to investigate the characteristics of patients with the worst outcomes and the highest risk of adverse events related to antituberculosis therapy. Therefore, we conducted a large retrospective study in TB patients admitted to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases University of Bari, Italy, in order to describe the clinical presentation and the factors associated with adverse events and outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated the patients admitted to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases from January 2013 to 15 December 2021. We stratified our cohort into two groups: <65 years of age and ≥65 years in order to assess any differences between the two groups. Two logistic regression models were implemented considering the dependent variables as: (I) the adverse events; and (II) the unsuccessful treatments. Results: In total, 206 consecutive patients [60% (n = 124) M, median age 39 years, range 16-92] were diagnosed and admitted with TB at Clinic of Infectious Diseases. Of the whole sample, 151 (74%) were <65 years and 55 (26%) were ≥65. Statistically significant differences between the two groups were detected (p-value < 0.05) for nationality (p-value = 0.01), previous contact with TB patient (p-value = 0.00), type of TB (p-value = 0.00), unsuccessful treatment (p-value = 0.00), length of hospitalization (p-value = 0.02) and diagnostic delay (p-value = 0.01). Adverse events related to TB drug regimen were reported in 24% (n = 49). Age < 65 years (O.R. = 3.91; 95% CI 1.72-4.21), non-Italian nationality (O.R. = 4.45; 95% CI 2.22-4.98.), homeless (O.R. = 3.23; 95% CI 2.58-4.54), presence of respiratory symptoms (O.R. = 1.23; 95% CI 1.10-1.90), diagnostic delay (O.R = 2.55; 95% CI 1.98-3.77) resulted associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome (death, failure or lost to follow up). Finally, age < 65 years (O.R. = 1.73; 95% CI 1.31-2.49), presence of pulmonary TB (O.R. = 1.15; 95% CI 1.02-1.35), length of hospitalization (O.R. = 1.82; 95% CI 1.35-2.57) and TB culture positive (O.R. = 1.35; 95% CI 1.12-1.82) were associated with adverse events in our populations. Conclusions: The pharmacological approach alone seems insufficient to treat and cure a disease whose ethiopathogenesis is not only due to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis, but also to the poverty or the social fragility. Our data suggest that young foreigners, the homeless, and the people with low social and economic status are at higher risk of an unfavorable outcome in low incidence TB countries. Targeted actions to support this highly vulnerable population both in terms of outcome and occurrence of adverse events are needed.

Post-tuberculosis lung disease: a comparison of Brazilian, Italian, and Mexican cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lung function in a cohort of patients with a history of pulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil, as well as to evaluate the decline in lung function over time and compare it with that observed in similar cohorts in Mexico and Italy. METHODS: The three cohorts were compared in terms of age, smoking status, pulmonary function test results, six-minute walk test results, and arterial blood gas results. In the Brazilian cohort, pulmonary function test results, six-minute walk test results, and arterial blood gas results right after the end of tuberculosis treatment were compared with those obtained at the end of the follow-up period. RESULTS: The three cohorts were very different regarding pulmonary function test results. The most common ventilatory patterns in the Brazilian, Italian, and Mexican cohorts were an obstructive pattern, a mixed pattern, and a normal pattern (in 58 patients [50.9%], in 18 patients [41.9%], and in 26 patients [44.1%], respectively). Only 2 multidrug-resistant tuberculosis cases were included in the Brazilian cohort, whereas, in the Mexican cohort, 27 cases were included (45.8%). Mean PaO2 and mean SaO2 were lower in the Mexican cohort than in the Brazilian cohort (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.002 for PaO2 and SaO2, respectively). In the Brazilian cohort, almost all functional parameters deteriorated over time. CONCLUSIONS: This study reinforces the importance of early and effective treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis patients, because multidrug-resistant tuberculosis increases lung damage. When patients complete their tuberculosis treatment, they should be evaluated as early as possible, and, if post-tuberculosis lung disease is diagnosed, they should be managed and offered pulmonary rehabilitation because there is evidence that it is effective in these patients.

[Clinical characteristics and outcome analysis of COVID-19 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis].

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and tuberculosis (TB) are two respiratory infectious diseases with a high incidence of transmission, mainly via respiratory droplets and both can weaken the immune system and lower the number of CD4+T cells in patients. COVID-19 can occur before, at the same time or after the diagnosis of TB. Patients with pulmonary TB are more likely to have co-infection when they have a history of epidemiological exposure to COVID-19. At present, many cases of nosocomial infection of COVID-19 caused by ineffective prevention and control measures in tuberculosis hospitals have been reported successively at domestic and overseas. Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen the prevention and control of nosocomial infections in tuberculosis hospitals. The superposition of the two diseases can lead to a worsening prognosis, aggravating the patient's condition and making treatment more difficult. In addition, in the context of the new coronavirus epidemic, early recognition of co-infection with new coronavirus should be made when TB patients in chest hospitals present with symptoms such as aggregated fever or progressive disease. At the same time, we should focus on identifying the clinical and imaging manifestations of TB and COVID-19 co-infection. At present, research on COVID-19 complicated with pulmonary TB is scarce, and there are disputes on many aspects. As a country with a high prevalence of tuberculosis, it is of great practical significance to identify the clinical characteristics, outcomes, and treatment of the two infectious diseases in China.

Spoligotyping of Clinical Isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Species in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia. Investigation of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) species circulating in the Ethiopian population would contribute to the efforts made to control TB in the country. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the MTBC species and spoligo patterns in the Oromia region (central) of Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was used to recruit 450 smear positive pulmonary TB (PTB) cases from the Oromia region between September 2017 and August 2018. Mycobacteria were isolated from sputum samples on the Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) medium. Molecular identification of the isolates was performed by spoligotyping. The results of spoligotyping were transferred into a query box in the SITVIT2 database and Run TB-Lineage in the TB Insight website for the identification of spoligo international type (SIT) number and linages of the isolates, respectively. Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) 20 was applied for statistical analysis. Results: Three hundred and fifteen isolates were grouped under 181 different spoligotype patterns. The most dominantly isolated spoligotype pattern was SIT149 and it consisted of 23 isolates. The majority of the isolates were grouped under Euro-American (EA), East-African-Indian (EAI), and Indo-Oceanic (IO) lineages. These lineages consisted of 79.4, 9.8, and 9.8% of the isolates, respectively. One hundred and sixty-five of the isolates were classified under 31 clustered spoligotypes whereas the remaining 150 were singleton types. Furthermore, 91.1% of the total isolates were classified as orphan types. Clustering of spoligotypes was associated (p < 0.001) with EAI lineage. Conclusion: SIT149 and EA lineage were predominantly isolated from the Oromia region substantiating the findings of the similar studies conducted in other regions of Ethiopia. The observation of significant number of singleton and orphan spoligotypes warrants for additional genetic typing of the isolates using method(s) with a better discriminatory power than spoligotyping.